Markets/Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$145K

Liquidity$53K

ClosesMay 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets45 markets

45 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

38%

Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $145K has been traded. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569347