Markets/Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$429K

Liquidity$107K

ClosesJun 21, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Juan Carlos Pinzón's 2026 Colombian presidential election odds are pegged at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting no discernible market expectation for his victory this week. This extremely low probability suggests that no significant recent news has emerged to shift sentiment, nor do broad market indicators like S&P 500 Futures, VIX, or DXY offer direct insights into this specific political outcome. The collective market intelligence indicates traders anticipate no path to victory for Pinzón in the upcoming election.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets36 markets

36 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

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93%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

38%

Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $429K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569372