Markets/Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$429K

Liquidity$102K

ClosesJun 21, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Polymarket prices imply a 0% chance of Juan Carlos Pinzón winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, indicating no significant price movement this week. This extremely low probability suggests a widespread market consensus that Pinzón is not a viable contender. Traders are therefore not factoring any potential victory by Pinzón into their expectations for the election's outcome.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets36 markets

36 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

38%

Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $429K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569372