Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1%Polymarket prices imply a 0% chance of Juan Carlos Pinzón winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, indicating no significant price movement this week. This extremely low probability suggests a widespread market consensus that Pinzón is not a viable contender. Traders are therefore not factoring any potential victory by Pinzón into their expectations for the election's outcome.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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36 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.
Juan Carlos Pinzón
Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidenti
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $429K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569372