Markets/Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$152

Liquidity$71K

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Why this matters

Prediction markets price this at 0% YES (100% NO) — the market leans against this outcome. Related markets: Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? at 100%, Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? at 0%, Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament at 30%. Market closes in 26 days.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets22 markets

22 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st

Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round

65%

Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of

Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 20

27%

Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colo

—

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $152 has been traded. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569340