Markets/Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$484

Liquidity$145K

ClosesJun 21, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets48 markets

48 deadline markets. Combined YES = 266% — 166pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

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43%

Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidentia

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

0%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $484 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569364