Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Closes October 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$77K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: +9.9pp
1% → 11%
Mar 6, 2026
Peak probability
11% YES — highest in period
Mar 6, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+29.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637005
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
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