Markets/Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes July 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$222

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088126