Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: -5.3pp
12% → 7%
Mar 8, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628938
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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