Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Closes October 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$84K
Liquidity
$500K
Bid / Ask
94% / 94%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
94%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
89% YES
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: +5.4pp
89% → 94%
Mar 5, 2026
Peak probability
95% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
94% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
+3.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $84K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500754
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.