Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$106
Bid / Ask
13% / 74%
Spread
61.00pp
Expert Signal
44%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 61.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1922875
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
36% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: +11.0pp
36% → 47%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
40% YES (-7.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this