Markets/Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes December 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$126K

Bid / Ask

18% / 18%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

2026

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Biggest move: +9.6pp

11% → 20%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

18% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/898412