Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$55K
Liquidity
$226K
Bid / Ask
24% / 25%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
25%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743556
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Italy: 67%, Türkiye: 48%, Denmark: 47%.
Kosovo win on 2026-03-31?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
24% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
25% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this