Markets/Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?

Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes September 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

33%YES

67%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$117

Bid / Ask

2% / 64%

Spread

62.00pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

20% → 9%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

18% YES (+4.5pp recent)

Mar 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 33%99%

Buy YES@ 33¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 67¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 62.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1327100