Markets/Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES

4%NO

Volume 24h

$747

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

95% / 97%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+27.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

69% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

48% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: +33.5pp

48% → 81%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

98% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

96% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 96%99%

Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $747 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302090