Markets/Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?

Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 03:46 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES

66%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

23% / 44%

Spread

21.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+7.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

32% YES (+3.4pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 34%99%

Buy YES@ 34¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 21.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302400

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