Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$38K

Liquidity$284K

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-10.9pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 305% — 205pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Manchester United FC

Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03

100%

Toulouse FC

Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03

100%

Le Havre AC

Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2029352