Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819223
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
30% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Trough probability
16% YES — lowest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -14.0pp
30% → 16%
Apr 2, 2026
Current
16% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this