Markets/Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?

Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?

Market Price

70%YES

30%NO

Vol 24h$2.2M

Liquidity$606K

Bid / Ask69% / 70%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 1, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 361% — 261pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Beşiktaş JK

Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01

92%

Leeds United FC

Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01

70%

Girona FC

Girona FC win on 2026-05-01

50%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+2.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?" at 70% YES / 30% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.2M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 70%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 70%, NO 30%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2010948