Markets/Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes May 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +8.2pp

3% → 12%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

12% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+7.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on May 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566737