Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$227
Bid / Ask
24% / 47%
Spread
23.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 23.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1922873
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
44% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Trough probability
37% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: +9.0pp
37% → 46%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
42% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this