Markets/Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes October 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first…

2026

Full event →

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place

66%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in seco

14%

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in t

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the

Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place i

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in se

Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in

Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in

Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place i

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second pla

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place

Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second plac

13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365854