Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$135K
Bid / Ask
42% / 43%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…
2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
43% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 2, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 4, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 5, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 6, 2026
Current
43% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601819
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Venue Divergence
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