Markets/Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes June 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$71K

Liquidity

$57K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

2025

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+8.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +9.3pp

2% → 12%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

12% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

11% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%

½ Kelly1.3%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/564163