Will Madison Air not IPO before June 2026?
Closes April 16, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Madison Air not IPO before June 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Madison Air not IPO before June 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1910640
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -5.7pp
7% → 1%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this