Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $13.0B and $13.5B at market close on IPO day?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.1pp above current market price; market at 29% may be underpriced with macro signals showing S&P +0.2% ↑, VIX -4.4% ↓, 10Y yield -5bps ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
28% / 29%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
29%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $13.0B and $13.5B at market close on IPO day?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $13.0B and $13.5B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1910638
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
29% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this