Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 32% may be underpriced with macro signals showing S&P +1.3% ↑, VIX +1.2% ↑, 10Y yield -3bps ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
31% / 33%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
32%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1910639
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
32% YES (+4.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this