Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?
Closes March 29, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$852
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: +32.6pp
3% → 36%
Mar 26, 2026
Peak probability
36% YES — highest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Current
4% YES (+1.8pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1692323
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Venue Divergence
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