Markets/Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2027

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$51K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential…

2027

Full event →

the 2027 French presidential election?

26%

the 2027 French presidential election?

18%

the 2027 French presidential election?

10%

the 2027 French presidential election?

36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679018