Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1%Marjorie Taylor Greene's odds of securing the 2028 Republican presidential nomination remain at a scant 1% on Polymarket, unchanged this week, signaling a stark disconnect with potential future political developments. This extremely low price suggests traders anticipate negligible support for her nomination. The broader market sentiment, as indicated by S&P 500 futures trading higher and a lower VIX, does not appear to be factoring in any significant political volatility that would alter this perception.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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4 deadline markets. Market implies ~75% chance none resolve YES.
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presi
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562004