Markets/Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$15K

Liquidity$248K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets22 markets

22 deadline markets. Market implies ~15% chance none resolve YES.

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi

39%

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

21%

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presi

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

1%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562004