Markets/Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

3%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$30K

Liquidity

$287K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

2028

Full event →

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

25%

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

the 2028 US Presidential Election?

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+20.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+20.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559668