Markets/Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$200

Liquidity$70K

ClosesJun 21, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The prediction market for Mauricio Cardenas winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election currently stands at 0%, indicating no perceived probability of victory according to Polymarket. This flat price, unchanged this week, suggests a complete absence of current market conviction in his candidacy. Absent any new information or shifts in political sentiment, traders are not pricing in any likelihood of a Cardenas win.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets44 markets

44 deadline markets. Combined YES = 205% — 105pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

92%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

42%

Mauricio Cardenas

Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidentia

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

0%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $200 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569367