Markets/Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$14K

Liquidity$106K

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market, priced at 0%, is significant as it reflects a complete lack of current belief in Mauricio Cárdenas securing victory in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. The 0% price point suggests that, based on available information, the collective assessment places his chances at zero, a data point that warrants close observation as the election cycle unfolds.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets42 markets

42 deadline markets. Combined YES = 215% — 115pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

36%

Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colo

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569348