Markets/Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$309K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658935

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.