Markets/Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:54 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

$39K

Liquidity

$254K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 19%99%

Buy YES@ 19¢

Edge

+2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658931