Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$25K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004881
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