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Markets/Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6?
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Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6?

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

99%YES
1%NO

Volume 24h

$163K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

99% / 99%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $163K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786924

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

99% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO@ 1¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this