Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$373K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
13% / 13%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: +8.6pp
7% → 16%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
16% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
13% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $373K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122892
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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