Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$0
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
99%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Mar 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
75%
Mar 3, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Mar 4, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
44%
Mar 5, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 6, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
58%
Mar 7, 2026
Biggest move: +66.9pp
8% → 75%
Mar 3, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469362
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.