Markets/Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$58K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's 0% YES price reflects a near-zero probability assignment to Mustafa Hijri assuming the head of state position by the end of 2026, with no discernible market indicators suggesting otherwise. The consensus across related markets on military action also indicates a low probability of conflict extending into 2026, reinforcing the current pricing.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469746