Markets/Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$10

Liquidity$54K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds critical significance as it reflects a 0% probability for Navid Shomali to assume the head of state position in Iran by the end of 2026, aligning with the absence of predicted conflict escalation in related markets concerning Iran's actions by March 31. The current price reflects no perceived immediate geopolitical shift leading to such a leadership change.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469745