Markets/Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$92

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

Full event →

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: +10.0pp

4% → 14%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

14% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349160