Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closes July 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
48% / 50%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1630444
This event has 29 active outcome markets. Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 90%, Europe: 72%, Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 49%.
Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
48% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
48% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this