Markets/Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$21K

Liquidity$559K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets72 markets

72 deadline markets. Combined YES = 228% — 128pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Democratic

Democratic win the Presidency in 2028

62%

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi

39%

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561980