Markets/Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:06 PM UTC

Closes June 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$45K

Liquidity

$41K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

2025

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-21.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

23% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: -5.7pp

8% → 2%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/564161