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Markets/Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
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Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
37%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +1.8% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +1.8% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑
+1.9pp
HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute01:05 AM

Polymarket Price

37%YES
63%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

36% / 38%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.5pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709260

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

39% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

37% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this