Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

93%YES

7%NO

Volume 24h

$527

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

92% / 94%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

93%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

91% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Trough probability

85% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

92% → 86%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

94% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 93%99%

Buy YES@ 93¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 7¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $527 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1487054