Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

68%YES

33%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$77K

Bid / Ask

67% / 68%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

68%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+20.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: -11.5pp

61% → 50%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

70% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

68% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 68%99%

Buy YES@ 68¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.5%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO@ 32¢

-1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676739