Markets/Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:41 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$132K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+14.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $132K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1663469

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