Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$119K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
14% / 17%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $119K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665470
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 20: 38%, Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 19%, Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 18%.
Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
15% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this