Markets/Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?

Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:34 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$307

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

9% / 9%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $307 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/700398

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