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Markets/Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
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Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES
49%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

43% / 58%

Spread

15.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1285453

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Apr 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Apr 8, 2026

Current

52% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 51%99%
Buy YES@ 51¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 49¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this